NEW FIGURES - WHY TORQUAY NEEDS A NEW PRIMARY SCHOOL NOW!
Tuesday, 15 February 2011 04:17
Alarming new figures on the growth of primary school aged students in the region show all local primary schools will hit capacity next year (2012) and if no commitment to a new primary school is made by the Victorian Government until the next State election, nearly 500 families will be forced to drive into Geelong to find a primary school place for their child. (see tables below)
“The figures show the number of children in our local primary schools will jump by over 500 in the next few years”, Darren Cheeseman said.
“They show exactly what every family who has a primary aged school child already knows. Our primary schools are chockers, and the choices are reducing fast.” Darren Cheeseman said.
“This year, parents who wanted to send their children to a smaller government school were turned away because there was no capacity to accommodate them.”
“We need to get on with building a new primary school in Torquay right now.”
Darren Cheeseman said he had extracted the figures from town-by-town age group census data and previous growth predictions, with the growth predictions proving to have been remarkable accurate over the last 7 years.
“I am very confident these new figures on our future primary school population are accurate. The growth rates predicted in 2006 are exactly what the primary school population is today. It was right on the money.”
“What the figures say is that by 2016, our primary school population will grow to around about 2,100 children.”
“With all schools now at, or close to, capacity, there are very narrow choices. Next year when all school are at capacity there will be no choices, and in the near future it will get much worse.”
“Our projections show that if the new Victorian Government does not fund a new primary school until the next election as they are planning, by the time it is built we will have 500 local families travelling into Geelong to get a primary school place.”
“If they start building in two years time and have it operational in 2014, Torquay Primary will be between 1,100 and 1,200 primary school students. As a father who will have to send my son to primary school in Torquay in two years time, that’s just not on.”
Current primary school enrolments across Torquay College, Bellbrae and St Therese are 1,566. With Torquay College at absolute capacity at 840 primary students, Bellbrae having a planned maximum of 350 and St Therese 450 maximum capacity total current primary school capacity is 1,640 students. This will be exceeded next year.
The growth projections from ABS census data for primary school aged children in this area is estimated at a 5.9% growth rate (based on previous years, see below).
“I support the initiative to provide the full range of secondary schooling options in Torquay and it is high time this happened. But the fact is that this is only addressing half the problem.”
“The future of primary education is also in crisis in this area and we need to get on and fix this. We need either another primary school, or another P-12 in addition to a high school.”
Please see below tables on which calculations have been made. For more information, ring Joe Taylor 0416241653.
Table 1. Torquay / Jan Juc / Bellbrae Primary School Current Enrolments and Total Capacity
School Bellbrae Torquay St Therese
Total capacity 350 840 450
Current enrolments 326 840 400
Table 2. Primary school population projections for Torquay/Jan Juc/ Bellbrae based on 2006 data and 5.9% growth rate *
YEAR 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PRIMARY POPULATION 1204 1275 1359 1429 1514 1603 1698 1798 1904 2 016 2135
(* PLEASE NOTE. The 5.9% growth rate is used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for this age group in this growth area. If you add those primary students from Jan Juc / Torquay / Bellbrae who attend the Freshwater Creek Steiner School to the other primary aged students attending Bellbrae, Torquay College and St Therese, the projections from 2006 to today (2011) are within just a few students. So we can be very confident these projections are accurate."
